Deflagration

Posted on by Thor

Many are letting their guard down now that Donald Trump wants to open up the economy leaving governors the challenge of figuring out how to do that safely. Yet the virus is not slowing down. The number of people dying every day is in the thousands. Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of the White House’s coronavirus task force, warned senators Tuesday May 12, 2020  that states and cities face serious consequences if they open up too quickly, urging states not to reopen until they know they have the capabilities to handle an inevitable uptick in cases once they relax stay-at-home orders.

I am going to share some musings of Dr. Erin Bromage and link to his article should you want to read more. He is a PhD in Microbiology and makes no claims at being an expert in Covid-19, medicine, or preparedness. Though we may soon be reaching the peak of the curve of death that I check every night before I go to sleep, the downward slope of that curve is predicted to be gradual with deaths persisting for months. Assuming that states stayed in lock down, we would lose another 70,000 people over the next 6 weeks as we come off that peak. As states reopen fuel is added to the virus for it to spread.

In many cases people become infected in the home. One person leaves the home and then returns and the sustained contact with family spreads the infection. Some experts estimate that as few as 1000 SARS-CoV2 infectious viral particles needed to cause an infection.

Sine many will be returning to work the goal is to try to guide you away from situations of high risk. Grocery stores, bike rides, and inconsiderate runners who are not wearing masks are not necessarily areas of primary concern. The reason is that if there are viral particles, you are exposed for a brief period of time. A grocery store worker however could have sustained exposure over time.

Bathrooms are high risk exposure areas with a lot of high touch surfaces, door handles, faucets, stall doors. Of course a cough is high risk. A single cough releases about 3,000 droplets and droplets travels at 50 miles per hour. A single sneeze releases about 30,000 droplets, with droplets traveling at up to 200 miles per hour. Most droplets are small and travel great distances (easily across a room).
A single breath releases 50 – 5000 droplets. Though research has not been done a breath might release about 33 viral particles.
 
To become infected you need to be exposed to the virus over time. Some of the biggest outbreaks of the virus have been at meat packing plants, weddings, funerals, and business networking. A study of an asymptomatic person seated with 9 friends in a restaurant showed that 50% of the people at the table became infected along with 75% of the people at a downwind table. A single air conditioning unit recirculated the air in the room. Even 2 people upwind of the asymptomatic person became infected.
 
A case study of a workplace, had one infected employee come into a crowded call center with 216 employees. Over the period of a week, 94 of those people became infected. Primarily the people on one side off the office became infected while only a few were infected on the other side off the office. Working in an enclosed space, sharing the same air for a prolonged period increases your chances of exposure and infection.
A choir rehearsal in Washington state had 60 people in attendance. Members avoided handshakes and hugs and had their own sheet music. A single asymptomatic carrier infected most of the people in attendance. They sang for 2 1/2 hours, inside an enclosed rehearsal hall which was roughly the size of a volleyball court. Singing aerosolizes respiratory droplets extraordinarily well. I have been watching National Theater productions broadcast for free during the pandemic and the close ups on actors singing shows this spray of particles particularly well in the stage spotlighting. Over a period of 4 days, 45 of the 60 choir members developed symptoms, 2 died.
All these infection events were indoors, with people closely-spaced, with lots of talking, singing, or yelling. The main sources for infection are home, workplace, public transport, social gatherings, and restaurants. This accounts for 90% of all transmission events. Of the countries performing contact tracing properly, only a single outbreak has been reported from an outdoor environment. That means the painting I just posted is more fantasy than fact, but hey, its art. I’m just trying to wake up the complacent.
Know the risks, wash your hands, wear a mask to protect yourself and others and stay safe out there.

2 thoughts on “Deflagration”

  1. You refer to Erin Bromage as a she. Is there more than one Erin Bromage? I am familiar with Phd Erin Bromage, a man.
    Thank you,
    Please clarify
    HS

Comments are closed.